As of April 11, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains operational under a controlled “permissioned navigation” regime, with severe administrative and routing constraints limiting throughput despite the ongoing 14-day passage window.
1. Operational Intelligence: Larak Split and Throughput Constraints.
– Transit volumes remain approximately 90% below pre-crisis baseline.
– Only 14 vessels completed passage in the last 24-hour cycle.
– Approximately 3,200 vessels remain diverted or at anchorage globally.
– Standard TSS suspended, replaced by IRGC-enforced Larak Split routing.
– Inbound vessels routed north of Larak Island through littoral channels.
– Outbound vessels directed south toward Omani territorial waters.
– Protocol 14 requiring 72-hour pre-notification creating scheduling volatility.
– Vessels without verified IMCC clearance being redirected to Omani anchorages.
2. Infrastructure & Logistics: Ras Laffan and Bunker Flow.
– EOD teams and AUVs conducting high-confidence UXO sweep at Ras Laffan.
– LNG liftings under Force Majeure for multiple scheduled cargoes.
– Bunker hubs at Salalah and Mauritius easing rationing conditions.
– Spot VLSFO premium remains elevated at approximately $40–$55/mt.
– Priority allocation continues for vessels repositioning from Cape route.
– Paradip and Mumbai reporting approximately 12% increase in discharge rates.
3. Regulatory & ESG: OCCS and Methane Cost Pressure.
– China’s MEPC 84 submission gaining support for OCCS credit inclusion.
– OCCS positioning critical for legacy VLCC compliance under EEXI/CII frameworks.
– Asset depreciation risk for non-compliant tonnage projected at ~15% by Q3 2026.
– EU ETS methane slip invoices averaging ~$60 per tonne fuel equivalent.
– Dual-fuel vessels reassessing LNG usage on extended Cape voyages.
4. Technical Dashboard: Last 24 Hours.
– Hormuz Daily Transits: 14 vessels.
– Traffic Deficit: ~88–90% vs April 2025 baseline.
– WTI–Brent Spread: WTI +$2.10 (inversion persists).
– War Risk Premium: ~0.375% (unchanged; awaiting routing stability).
– Bunker VLSFO (Salalah): ~$712/mt (spot easing; term contracts prioritized).
Strategic Summary (For Masters & Ship Managers).
– Treat Hormuz as a high-friction, clearance-driven corridor rather than a functional trade route.
– Do not attempt Larak routing without confirmed Protocol 14 clearance from IMCC.
– Expect continued delays and fuel penalties under anchor-and-wait conditions.
– Maintain Cape routing as primary planning baseline until throughput stabilizes.
– Audit methane slip exposure as EU ETS costs now materially impacting voyage economics.
Operational / Market Status: CRITICAL AMBER — Hormuz: Permissioned Navigation / Traffic: -90% / War Risk: Elevated.
DeepDraft Analysis (This Week):
GNSS interference and INS as a navigation fallback.
https://thedeepdraft.com/2026/04/06/inertial-navigation-systems-a-solution-for-maritime-accuracy/
Sources: IRGC Maritime Directives, Lloyd’s List Intelligence, Windward Analytics, IMO MEPC 84 Submissions, EU ETS Reporting (as of April 11, 2026).
This update is part of the DeepDraft Live Wire series covering developing maritime operational situations.
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